Season 1 Episode 2

CGCSA presents - Erika Terblanche and Johnny Moloto on South Africa's illicit tobacco crisis

20 October 2026 · 20:46 min

Illicit tobacco remains deeply entrenched in South Africa, with new research finding below-tax cigarette packs in nearly three-quarters of surveyed stores.

Erika Terblanche of Ipsos South Africa and Johnny Moloto, Head of Corporate & Regulatory Affairs at BAT Sub-Saharan Africa, unpack what the… latest research reveals about the scale and accessibility of illicit cigarettes.

Terblanche explains how Ipsos used mystery shoppers to measure the prevalence of cigarettes sold below South Africa’s minimum collectible tax, while clarifying why this does not represent illicit market share. Moloto discusses why seizures and arrests have not yet translated into meaningful change and argues that enforcement must increasingly target manufacturers and organised networks.

The discussion also examines minimum retail pricing, production monitoring, track-and-trace systems, excise taxes, and what stronger enforcement would need to look like.

0:00 Intro
1:39 How the Ipsos study was conducted
3:46 What the 74.5% figure really means
6:04 How cheap illicit cigarettes can get
7:15 Why enforcement is struggling
10:16 Targeting manufacturers and networks
12:48 Minimum pricing and excise reform

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